The Worst Case Scenario for the Global Financial Crisis:
- Ryan Rudolph
- Posts: 2490
- Joined: Sun Jan 29, 2006 10:32 am
- Location: British Columbia, Canada
The Worst Case Scenario for the Global Financial Crisis:
What could happen: The US continues inflating their dollar by pumping more money into failed companies that cannot be saved, and getting in the way of financial corrections by trying to prop up the economy with more monetary debit, which could result in the total collapse of their dollar, which will cause a domino effect of major paper currencies going bust due to how much investment governments and private citizens have in the US economy, and companies stationed in the US.
This is what has already begun to happen in countries such as South Korea who had much of their saving and surpluses invested in the US real estate market.
Moreover, the world is beginning to see that the behavior of the US government and that of the individual citizen is not unsustainable, and not wise. The US dollar has kept its value up until this point because the federal reserve has developed sophisticated techniques at hiding the real figures of how much debt and excess paper exists in the system. Financial instruments such as Government bonds, treasury bills, and so on has allowed the government to bury much of its debt out of sight. The world has bought into the illusion that the US dollar has intrinsic value based on the might of American empiricism, but such military might cannot survive. Like the roman empire, the US military has stretched itself too far, in too many places around the world, and is doomed to bankrupt itself. And foreign investors are beginning to realize that lending money to the US is not a wise decision. However, the consequences of pulling away from the US dollar as the reserve currency will affect most developed nations in a negative way because much of the economic growth around the world has been dependent on the excessive consumption within America. Consumption that could never be paid for, but was sustained by countries like China because of the hope that America was good for it.
How bad could it get? Well, you could have US citizens panicking by making runs on the banks, then grocery and energy outlets, only to find out that their money doesn't buy anything. Unconscious humans that are faced with fears of death react in fairly predicable ways – murder, theft, rape and looting are to name a few. However, the government maybe able to intervene by declaring martial law, and having survival outlets where large lineups of citizens wait for food provided by emergency relief agencies, which could ease the animal brain of unconscious humans. Things in the US could look a lot like what happened in Germany after WW2 or the fall of the Soviet Union after the Cold war.
Will it get this bad? I don't know for sure, but that is the direction we are moving in. Personally, I wanted to see the stock market madness for myself because as a student of economics, I didn't believe this could happen after what we were supposed to learn from the depressions and recessions of the past. However, I underestimated corporate greed, political ignorance, and the scope of the materialistic insanity that drives the everyday joe and jane unconscious So to get a better more eye witness account, I now day trade for a small company where I see the stock volatility first hand on a daily basis.
So how to prepare if the worst happens, personally, I would invest 40% of your savings into food items that can be stored for large periods, IE: Rice, Oats, Carrots, and so on. Buy enough food for 6 months in case things get really bad for awhile. Basically, spend your money on food while your money still has value, and there is still food in the grocery stores to buy. I would also invest in a firearm for protection, as humans become evil animals when their the comforts of civilization and their comfortable survival habits are suddenly destroyed. Also, If you are in a mortgage, I would get switched to a fixed rate, rather than a variable because the variable rates are governed by prime rates for your country, which is dependent on global interest rates.
This is what has already begun to happen in countries such as South Korea who had much of their saving and surpluses invested in the US real estate market.
Moreover, the world is beginning to see that the behavior of the US government and that of the individual citizen is not unsustainable, and not wise. The US dollar has kept its value up until this point because the federal reserve has developed sophisticated techniques at hiding the real figures of how much debt and excess paper exists in the system. Financial instruments such as Government bonds, treasury bills, and so on has allowed the government to bury much of its debt out of sight. The world has bought into the illusion that the US dollar has intrinsic value based on the might of American empiricism, but such military might cannot survive. Like the roman empire, the US military has stretched itself too far, in too many places around the world, and is doomed to bankrupt itself. And foreign investors are beginning to realize that lending money to the US is not a wise decision. However, the consequences of pulling away from the US dollar as the reserve currency will affect most developed nations in a negative way because much of the economic growth around the world has been dependent on the excessive consumption within America. Consumption that could never be paid for, but was sustained by countries like China because of the hope that America was good for it.
How bad could it get? Well, you could have US citizens panicking by making runs on the banks, then grocery and energy outlets, only to find out that their money doesn't buy anything. Unconscious humans that are faced with fears of death react in fairly predicable ways – murder, theft, rape and looting are to name a few. However, the government maybe able to intervene by declaring martial law, and having survival outlets where large lineups of citizens wait for food provided by emergency relief agencies, which could ease the animal brain of unconscious humans. Things in the US could look a lot like what happened in Germany after WW2 or the fall of the Soviet Union after the Cold war.
Will it get this bad? I don't know for sure, but that is the direction we are moving in. Personally, I wanted to see the stock market madness for myself because as a student of economics, I didn't believe this could happen after what we were supposed to learn from the depressions and recessions of the past. However, I underestimated corporate greed, political ignorance, and the scope of the materialistic insanity that drives the everyday joe and jane unconscious So to get a better more eye witness account, I now day trade for a small company where I see the stock volatility first hand on a daily basis.
So how to prepare if the worst happens, personally, I would invest 40% of your savings into food items that can be stored for large periods, IE: Rice, Oats, Carrots, and so on. Buy enough food for 6 months in case things get really bad for awhile. Basically, spend your money on food while your money still has value, and there is still food in the grocery stores to buy. I would also invest in a firearm for protection, as humans become evil animals when their the comforts of civilization and their comfortable survival habits are suddenly destroyed. Also, If you are in a mortgage, I would get switched to a fixed rate, rather than a variable because the variable rates are governed by prime rates for your country, which is dependent on global interest rates.
-
brokenhead
- Posts: 2271
- Joined: Mon Aug 07, 2006 8:51 am
- Location: Boise
Re: The Worst Case Scenario for the Global Financial Crisis:
Hey Ryan
That's a well thought out piece.
Probably should be over in WM.
If we take cause and effect, strict materialism, and Darwinism to their logical extrapolation, we could say that the economy is evolving. Capitalism seems to work nicely when there's a lot of "frontier" available, from the Dutch East Indies to the New World, and then to technological frontiers. But when it runs out of, dare I use the term, Lebensraum, it might need to shift gears, or morph into something else. If the Government buyout works, capitalism won't look exactly the same. Because the people will in effect be unwilling shareholders in the institutions from which they borrow capital to build a home or business. If a graduated tax weren't socialistic enough, now the revenue is being used to prop up a supposedly free, capitalist system. It looks like deregulation of the banking industry let capitalism show its true nature. They let the dogs out in the '90's. Now they come whining back with their tails between their legs. Some of them should be shot outright just to keep the others from getting rabid.
Hey Hodges - you were talking about a meltdown last year. I guess this is it. Do we think Monday is going to be stable, or is the bottom not in sight yet? What does the magic 8-ball say?
So far, all I see is a drop in gas prices. I'll say it again: this is artificially low for the benefit of the US voters. The oil companies probably see McCain as the lesser of two evils and they want to air some of the stench off the Republican Party.
That's a well thought out piece.
Probably should be over in WM.
If we take cause and effect, strict materialism, and Darwinism to their logical extrapolation, we could say that the economy is evolving. Capitalism seems to work nicely when there's a lot of "frontier" available, from the Dutch East Indies to the New World, and then to technological frontiers. But when it runs out of, dare I use the term, Lebensraum, it might need to shift gears, or morph into something else. If the Government buyout works, capitalism won't look exactly the same. Because the people will in effect be unwilling shareholders in the institutions from which they borrow capital to build a home or business. If a graduated tax weren't socialistic enough, now the revenue is being used to prop up a supposedly free, capitalist system. It looks like deregulation of the banking industry let capitalism show its true nature. They let the dogs out in the '90's. Now they come whining back with their tails between their legs. Some of them should be shot outright just to keep the others from getting rabid.
Hey Hodges - you were talking about a meltdown last year. I guess this is it. Do we think Monday is going to be stable, or is the bottom not in sight yet? What does the magic 8-ball say?
So far, all I see is a drop in gas prices. I'll say it again: this is artificially low for the benefit of the US voters. The oil companies probably see McCain as the lesser of two evils and they want to air some of the stench off the Republican Party.
- Ryan Rudolph
- Posts: 2490
- Joined: Sun Jan 29, 2006 10:32 am
- Location: British Columbia, Canada
Re: The Worst Case Scenario for the Global Financial Crisis:
Brokenhead,
For instance: If people were wise enough not to build $250, 000 homes that they couldn't afford, or if banks were wise enough not to lend that much money for a home, especially to people with poor or little credit.
And elected politicians are supposed to be intelligent enough to halt the behavior of the insane populous or the insane businesses, but the politicians lack judgment as well, so their actions usually only make matters worse. They usually respond emotionally to the mood of the herd, and make the problem that much more worse. Politicians should be logical and sane economists and ethical philosophers, if not, they shouldn't be allowed to sit in office. That should written into the constitution of each country.
Also, one of the main problems is that success in America is measured based on the accumulation of material wealth, which isn't necessarily a principle of capitalism. The word Capital is generally used to mean assets derived from business transactions, which can be used to grow further assets. However, such capital is usually indicative of business surplus, which is supposed to be put back into the business to make it more efficient, its products better and so on. The best capitalists use their capital to improve the society to which they serve by investing their savings or profits into humanities future somehow. The best capitalists are modest men that maybe quite rich, but you would never know it. They may have access to millions of dollars, but they live a humble existence, using their power to further their humanitarian cause.
Capitalism becomes distorted when men with poor character become successful doing jobs they hate, and they keep doing what they hate to accumulate more and more material wealth. And then their only joy in life is inciting envy in other poor character men to do the same, while showing off their trophy wife that is spellbound by personal material surplus, or big pretty things. Basically, capitalism doesn't work properly because men are predisposed to compete with other men to please shallow women who are attracted to men with personal material wealth. If men and women became less materialistic, and teamed up to serve something higher than their own shallow desires, then the fruits of capitalism would be fully realized by faster strides in science, technology and so on....
it's not a problem with capitalism, it is a problem with the average intelligence of human beings. Most humans cannot manage the freedom of judgment that capitalism grants them, and they behave in ways which undermines the potential prosperity that capitalism could give if they behaved more intelligently.If a graduated tax weren't socialistic enough, now the revenue is being used to prop up a supposedly free, capitalist system. It looks like deregulation of the banking industry let capitalism show its true nature.
For instance: If people were wise enough not to build $250, 000 homes that they couldn't afford, or if banks were wise enough not to lend that much money for a home, especially to people with poor or little credit.
And elected politicians are supposed to be intelligent enough to halt the behavior of the insane populous or the insane businesses, but the politicians lack judgment as well, so their actions usually only make matters worse. They usually respond emotionally to the mood of the herd, and make the problem that much more worse. Politicians should be logical and sane economists and ethical philosophers, if not, they shouldn't be allowed to sit in office. That should written into the constitution of each country.
Also, one of the main problems is that success in America is measured based on the accumulation of material wealth, which isn't necessarily a principle of capitalism. The word Capital is generally used to mean assets derived from business transactions, which can be used to grow further assets. However, such capital is usually indicative of business surplus, which is supposed to be put back into the business to make it more efficient, its products better and so on. The best capitalists use their capital to improve the society to which they serve by investing their savings or profits into humanities future somehow. The best capitalists are modest men that maybe quite rich, but you would never know it. They may have access to millions of dollars, but they live a humble existence, using their power to further their humanitarian cause.
Capitalism becomes distorted when men with poor character become successful doing jobs they hate, and they keep doing what they hate to accumulate more and more material wealth. And then their only joy in life is inciting envy in other poor character men to do the same, while showing off their trophy wife that is spellbound by personal material surplus, or big pretty things. Basically, capitalism doesn't work properly because men are predisposed to compete with other men to please shallow women who are attracted to men with personal material wealth. If men and women became less materialistic, and teamed up to serve something higher than their own shallow desires, then the fruits of capitalism would be fully realized by faster strides in science, technology and so on....
Re: The Worst Case Scenario for the Global Financial Crisis:
Yeah, it was maybe a year and a half ago that I started going "OH SHIT" and started reading up on farming, emergency preparedness, and so on. It seemed kind of paranoid at the time, even to me. It probably started with reading the book Collapse and realizing that this stuff really does happen. It's just that there is enough time in between it happening for people to forget about it and come up with reasons why everything is different now and it can't happen any more.brokenhead wrote:Hey Hodges - you were talking about a meltdown last year. I guess this is it. Do we think Monday is going to be stable, or is the bottom not in sight yet? What does the magic 8-ball say?
As for what's going to happen now - I don't know. Nobody does. That's why there's all this turbulence and volatility. You see the word "unprecedented" get thrown around a lot. All I can say is what I've been saying for the last year: Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
The huge drop in oil and gas took me by surprise. The drop we've seen is just as amazing to me as the way prices went up. People don't talk about it as much because it's a lot less painful (in the immediate short term).So far, all I see is a drop in gas prices. I'll say it again: this is artificially low for the benefit of the US voters. The oil companies probably see McCain as the lesser of two evils and they want to air some of the stench off the Republican Party.
- Ryan Rudolph
- Posts: 2490
- Joined: Sun Jan 29, 2006 10:32 am
- Location: British Columbia, Canada
Re: The Worst Case Scenario for the Global Financial Crisis:
Dhodges,
Moreover, the demand for oil has also drastically decreased as the global mood in the economy has been to ease up on spending, reduce debt and conserve energy. The boom cycle is burning out, and the inevitable effect is that energy use should drastically decrease globally for a period of time.
Not to mention that the value of many of the currencies around the world have decreased relative to the already decreasing US dollar, which makes the US dollar seem stronger. This causes investors to sell out of the commondities/energy and buy into more progressive investments such as technology and financials. And it also causes oil prices to increase because oil is bought and sold primarily in US dollars, so the more valuable the US dollar is relative to other decreasing currencies, the more oil that can be bought for the same amount.
yes, since the election is near, and the war bells aren't sounding as loud in the middle-east for another war, oil futures contract projections are much more positive as well as oil speculators that were hoping to profit from buying into undervalued commondities before another large war quickly sold off as they learned that the war threat isn't as emittent, even though it is still possible.The huge drop in oil and gas took me by surprise. The drop we've seen is just as amazing to me as the way prices went up. People don't talk about it as much because it's a lot less painful (in the immediate short term).
Moreover, the demand for oil has also drastically decreased as the global mood in the economy has been to ease up on spending, reduce debt and conserve energy. The boom cycle is burning out, and the inevitable effect is that energy use should drastically decrease globally for a period of time.
Not to mention that the value of many of the currencies around the world have decreased relative to the already decreasing US dollar, which makes the US dollar seem stronger. This causes investors to sell out of the commondities/energy and buy into more progressive investments such as technology and financials. And it also causes oil prices to increase because oil is bought and sold primarily in US dollars, so the more valuable the US dollar is relative to other decreasing currencies, the more oil that can be bought for the same amount.
- Diebert van Rhijn
- Posts: 6469
- Joined: Fri Jun 03, 2005 4:43 pm
Re: Oil Prices
The price of oil is going down because of the same reason it went up in the first place: irresponsible and out-of-control speculation [on the price of oil] by various devious hedge funds. The oil industry or oil producing countries can hardly influence this. So at the moment the plunge of the oil price is because these hedge funds are getting their cash out, quickly.
- brad walker
- Posts: 300
- Joined: Fri Sep 21, 2007 8:49 am
- Location: be an eye
Re: The Worst Case Scenario for the Global Financial Crisis:
Not watching stocks, real estate or other commodities? Even though commodities prices are dropping those savings won't necessarily be passed quickly: Grocery bill still high? Blame 'sticky' pricesbrokenhead wrote:So far, all I see is a drop in gas prices.
Last edited by brad walker on Mon Oct 20, 2008 8:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
- brad walker
- Posts: 300
- Joined: Fri Sep 21, 2007 8:49 am
- Location: be an eye
Re: The Worst Case Scenario for the Global Financial Crisis:
Any system fails to the degree that it doesn't compensate for the faults of its parts.Ryan Rudolph wrote:it's not a problem with capitalism, it is a problem with the average intelligence of human beings. Most humans cannot manage the freedom of judgment that capitalism grants them, and they behave in ways which undermines the potential prosperity that capitalism could give if they behaved more intelligently.
Re: The Worst Case Scenario for the Global Financial Crisis:
The collapse of the dollar will not be allowed by the various world governments. My conjecture is that countries will gradually shift away from exporting to the US, and the dollar will lose its status as the reserve currency and the living standards will drop a lot.Ryan Rudolph wrote:What could happen: The US continues inflating their dollar by pumping more money into failed companies that cannot be saved, and getting in the way of financial corrections by trying to prop up the economy with more monetary debit, which could result in the total collapse of their dollar, which will cause a domino effect of major paper currencies going bust due to how much investment governments and private citizens have in the US economy, and companies stationed in the US.
Ironically the USD is strengthening against most currencies right now, due to a huge demand for dollars as Hedge funds pull away from investments everywhere. This rally would cease soon enough and the dollar should face a 20 percent decline or more.Ryan Rudolph wrote:Moreover, the world is beginning to see that the behavior of the US government and that of the individual citizen is not unsustainable, and not wise. The US dollar has kept its value up until this point because the federal reserve has developed sophisticated techniques at hiding the real figures of how much debt and excess paper exists in the system. Financial instruments such as Government bonds, treasury bills, and so on has allowed the government to bury much of its debt out of sight. The world has bought into the illusion that the US dollar has intrinsic value based on the might of American empiricism, but such military might cannot survive. Like the roman empire, the US military has stretched itself too far, in too many places around the world, and is doomed to bankrupt itself. And foreign investors are beginning to realize that lending money to the US is not a wise decision. However, the consequences of pulling away from the US dollar as the reserve currency will affect most developed nations in a negative way because much of the economic growth around the world has been dependent on the excessive consumption within America. Consumption that could never be paid for, but was sustained by countries like China because of the hope that America was good for it.
-
brokenhead
- Posts: 2271
- Joined: Mon Aug 07, 2006 8:51 am
- Location: Boise
Re: The Worst Case Scenario for the Global Financial Crisis:
Yeah, Greenspan, I have been. That's Wall Street. I live on Main Street.brad walker wrote:Not watching stocks, real estate or other commodities? Even though commodities prices are dropping those savings won't necessarily be passed quickly: Grocery bill still high? Blame 'sticky' pricesbrokenhead wrote:So far, all I see is a drop in gas prices.
Re: The Worst Case Scenario for the Global Financial Crisis:
Very interesting, Mr Rudolph. I see you live in Canada. May i ask you a few questions sir, best opinion you can give ok,thanks?Ryan Rudolph wrote:What could happen: The US continues inflating their dollar by pumping more money into failed companies that cannot be saved, and getting in the way of financial corrections by trying to prop up the economy with more monetary debit, which could result in the total collapse of their dollar, which will cause a domino effect of major paper currencies going bust due to how much investment governments and private citizens have in the US economy, and companies stationed in the US.
So how to prepare if the worst happens, personally, I would invest 40% of your savings into food items that can be stored for large periods, IE: Rice, Oats, Carrots, and so on. Buy enough food for 6 months in case things get really bad for awhile. Basically, spend your money on food while your money still has value, and there is still food in the grocery stores to buy. I would also invest in a firearm for protection, as humans become evil animals when their the comforts of civilization and their comfortable survival habits are suddenly destroyed. Also, If you are in a mortgage, I would get switched to a fixed rate, rather than a variable because the variable rates are governed by prime rates for your country, which is dependent on global interest rates.
OK lets say it happens as you say or at least much worse then now is situation, what will be impact on Canadian dollar say, a month or two later when shock is over? If very good maybe you can recomend we buy your dollars and store in local bank safety box??
Of course I mean excess cash after food investment.
Next question, with dead american dollar will US saving bonds be affected? explain please.
How about buying new bonds after decline, any deals there?
Wont all things drop in value, gold silver whatever?
If US gold drop in half, wont gold in Spain be cheap too? Otherwise the Spanish and Europe come buy all our reduced gold, no?
Would help to buy this metals now instead of keep the cash in savings account?
My feeling is gold, silver would be one of best bets because even if drop soon will in future still be most valuable things in world.
You think thats why gold is 793 dollars ounce, because many seek it?
Is wise to store in banks? what if they close down, and steal or hold your gold!
Where do people store gold?
What would you do with excess cash? After food is stored i mean.
Is there not some country in world where impact not much? SO why not trade US dollars with this country's money NOW just to be safe?
Is good idea to live other country when this happen? how better. Which place best.
Are you sure rice and grains keep 6 months without refrigerator? Why not mention caned food, what American can eat rice evry day, that i gotta see! How will they store t-bone steaks i wonder.
PLease recomend book to help us prepare. Or website. (maybe better not be US author, who will believe him/her!)
thankyou
M
- FOREIGNER
- Ryan Rudolph
- Posts: 2490
- Joined: Sun Jan 29, 2006 10:32 am
- Location: British Columbia, Canada
Re: The Worst Case Scenario for the Global Financial Crisis:
Brad,
Mansman,
The reason why I wouldn’t invest in Canada is for one simple reason – The US is our number one trading partner, over 70% of our exports go to the US so a US recession will cause a less painful recession in Canada. Basically, our politicians never diversified the nation’s trading agreements equally to the many developed and developing nations, and our overwhelming dependency on the US must have negative consequences as a result
I wouldn’t even advise you to put your money under your mattress because it may not have value tomorrow. It is very difficult to get advise because no one knows how bad this could get.
When countries like Iceland, South Korea and New Zealand all experience recessionary effects of the US financial crisis, this illustrates how connected the global economy has become. And the value of all the paper currencies around the world are partially dependent on the US dollar keeping its value.
Think of it this way – If the paper currency of the most powerful nation of the world collapses, what do you think will happen to the confidence of other major paper currencies around the world who have emulated the US economic model quite a bit and have become dependent on it to maintain its own GDP….
Multinationals are destroying Canada in my opinion. Large numbers of foreigners are moving in, and breaking the worst of their cultures with them, and reproducing faster than the white race is here, which have set up the pillars of this country. And meanwhile, most of their countries are falling apart and they refuse to allow other races to live with them. This creates an imbalance, as their races continue to grow exponentially, while there is a slow, but consistent reduction in the white race. We are slowly becoming a minority in our own countries. I wouldn’t care, but the empirical evidence suggests that the best creativity in science and technology has been primarily achieved by the white race – specifically white men, so I think I have a valid concern in maintaining white bio diversity because rational traits emerge in the white race more often than other races.
Capitalism is a system, but it is more complicated than your typical mechanical system because individual consciousness is the part, which determines the health of the whole. And basically, the health of the whole is measured by the health of the parts, but the health of consciousness around the globe is poor. All emotion and no logic or all animal and no spirit.Any system fails to the degree that it doesn't compensate for the faults of its parts.
Mansman,
From what I now know based on the facts, I wouldn’t invest in Canada at the moment, too risky, even though we have solid regulations protecting most of our major industries.OK lets say it happens as you say or at least much worse then now is situation, what will be impact on Canadian dollar say, a month or two later when shock is over? If very good maybe you can recomend we buy your dollars and store in local bank safety box??
Of course I mean excess cash after food investment
The reason why I wouldn’t invest in Canada is for one simple reason – The US is our number one trading partner, over 70% of our exports go to the US so a US recession will cause a less painful recession in Canada. Basically, our politicians never diversified the nation’s trading agreements equally to the many developed and developing nations, and our overwhelming dependency on the US must have negative consequences as a result
You have to ask yourself what are US saving bonds? You are loaning money to the US government and getting a return on your money, you are basically a bank to the US government, and that is another way that the US government is able to hide how much it owes, through bonds that it doesn’t have to account for like other loans. Moreover, the value of a government bond is measured by too factors: the demand for bonds and if the US government can pay them back on time. And historically, the US has been fairly reliable in pay backs with interest. However, the major reason why the US dollar is failing is because the US borrows too much money that it is having a difficult time paying back. The US deficient is estimated at 11 trillion, and in my opinion, there must be a breaking point when the interest payments become so high that it becomes obvious that the money will never be able to be paid back. And if and when this happens, government bonds will become worthless because the government will be officially bankrupt, meaning as an entity, it will be incapable of paying back what it owes, and it will be forced to whip the slate clean and start again. So countries that lent the US tons of money will get burnt and people holding US bonds will get burnt, and so the US dollar will cease to become the reserve currency of the world because no one will trust it, and furthermore, people will be weary of lending to the US again, so the international community will probably downgrade the US credit rating, and it will have to work hard to gain the world’s trust again.Next question, with dead american dollar will US saving bonds be affected? explain please.
How about buying new bonds after decline, any deals there?
Everything is dropping in value at the moment – paper currencies, stocks, commodities, previous metals, bonds, futures – I don’t trust anything as an investment at the moment…Wont all things drop in value, gold silver whatever?
If US gold drop in half, wont gold in Spain be cheap too? Otherwise the Spanish and Europe come buy all our reduced gold, no?
I wouldn’t even advise you to put your money under your mattress because it may not have value tomorrow. It is very difficult to get advise because no one knows how bad this could get.
The metals may retain the most value out of anything, but personally, I would invest storable food before I invest in metals. Metals are difficult to eat when your hungry. In desperate times, people don’t want gold, they want food. The basic necessities of life become scarce because of the panic that takes place, and because of the increased population globally in developing and developed countries, I think this scenario is definitely a possibility.My feeling is gold, silver would be one of best bets because even if drop soon will in future still be most valuable things in world.
I would secure the other basic necessities, and then I would think about whether or not to keep my savings in gold or paper. It’s a hard call… I don’t enough money saved to have to worry about that anyway so…What would you do with excess cash?
The success of the US economy, which was based on rampant out of control materialism funded on excess credit has basically propped up the economies of much of the developed and developing world.Is there not some country in world where impact not much? SO why not trade US dollars with this country's money NOW just to be safe?
When countries like Iceland, South Korea and New Zealand all experience recessionary effects of the US financial crisis, this illustrates how connected the global economy has become. And the value of all the paper currencies around the world are partially dependent on the US dollar keeping its value.
Think of it this way – If the paper currency of the most powerful nation of the world collapses, what do you think will happen to the confidence of other major paper currencies around the world who have emulated the US economic model quite a bit and have become dependent on it to maintain its own GDP….
A country that is mostly rural, with a small population that values the environment, and is not as dependent on big trade, and run mostly by white people. My pick would be New Zealand if I could move tomorrow.Is good idea to live other country when this happen? how better. Which place best.
Multinationals are destroying Canada in my opinion. Large numbers of foreigners are moving in, and breaking the worst of their cultures with them, and reproducing faster than the white race is here, which have set up the pillars of this country. And meanwhile, most of their countries are falling apart and they refuse to allow other races to live with them. This creates an imbalance, as their races continue to grow exponentially, while there is a slow, but consistent reduction in the white race. We are slowly becoming a minority in our own countries. I wouldn’t care, but the empirical evidence suggests that the best creativity in science and technology has been primarily achieved by the white race – specifically white men, so I think I have a valid concern in maintaining white bio diversity because rational traits emerge in the white race more often than other races.
Re: The Worst Case Scenario for the Global Financial Crisis:
Ryan,Ryan Rudolph wrote:A country that is mostly rural, with a small population that values the environment, and is not as dependent on big trade, and run mostly by white people. My pick would be New Zealand if I could move tomorrow.
Multinationals are destroying Canada in my opinion. Large numbers of foreigners are moving in, and breaking the worst of their cultures with them, and reproducing faster than the white race is here, which have set up the pillars of this country. And meanwhile, most of their countries are falling apart and they refuse to allow other races to live with them. This creates an imbalance, as their races continue to grow exponentially, while there is a slow, but consistent reduction in the white race. We are slowly becoming a minority in our own countries. I wouldn’t care, but the empirical evidence suggests that the best creativity in science and technology has been primarily achieved by the white race – specifically white men, so I think I have a valid concern in maintaining white bio diversity because rational traits emerge in the white race more often than other races.
Are you inspired by Hitler. An economic crisis, a return to racial purity?
- Ryan Rudolph
- Posts: 2490
- Joined: Sun Jan 29, 2006 10:32 am
- Location: British Columbia, Canada
Re: The Worst Case Scenario for the Global Financial Crisis:
Ryan,
whites shouldn't allow their numbers to dwindle while other races reproduce out of control, it is imbalanced and unconscious. I remember speaking with a black janitor at work one time, and he told me that he had 7 children with 4 different women, two of which were white women. And this guy was no barack obama, he shouldn't have had children period. And this is normal behavior among dumb people, and meanwhile, intellectuals are having one or no children. Something needs to be done. We need to somehow control the reproduction numbers of unintelligent people because as technology progresses, we are not going to need as many slaves to do jobs like janitor work.
However, perhaps the interracial breeding of whites and asians may create a new hybrid race that proves to be quite rational.
In my opinion, European countries such as London have lost a lot of grit. They have become too tolerate and restricted by freedom of speech laws that ignores weak psychology. For instance: The british stood up to Hitler and showed a lot of grit, but now they tolerate too much emotionally driven hate speech within their own country, especially by islamic radicals. In my view, you need to assassinate those individuals, and not allow them to propogate their toxic memes to younger males.
Although, I'm not advocating a hitler like extermination movement, it is too bloody and messy, although if some humane population control techninques could be implemented to prevent the less intelligent from reproducing in such large numbers then I would be all for it.
I just don't think it serves the cause of wisdom for the races that historically contributed the least to civilization (science, technology, creativity, philosophy) to reproduce faster than the small numbers of the white and asian race who have trailblazed and have done most of the hard intellectual work. The meek and intelligent should inherit the earth, not the unintelligent and emotional.Are you inspired by Hitler. An economic crisis, a return to racial purity?
whites shouldn't allow their numbers to dwindle while other races reproduce out of control, it is imbalanced and unconscious. I remember speaking with a black janitor at work one time, and he told me that he had 7 children with 4 different women, two of which were white women. And this guy was no barack obama, he shouldn't have had children period. And this is normal behavior among dumb people, and meanwhile, intellectuals are having one or no children. Something needs to be done. We need to somehow control the reproduction numbers of unintelligent people because as technology progresses, we are not going to need as many slaves to do jobs like janitor work.
However, perhaps the interracial breeding of whites and asians may create a new hybrid race that proves to be quite rational.
In my opinion, European countries such as London have lost a lot of grit. They have become too tolerate and restricted by freedom of speech laws that ignores weak psychology. For instance: The british stood up to Hitler and showed a lot of grit, but now they tolerate too much emotionally driven hate speech within their own country, especially by islamic radicals. In my view, you need to assassinate those individuals, and not allow them to propogate their toxic memes to younger males.
Although, I'm not advocating a hitler like extermination movement, it is too bloody and messy, although if some humane population control techninques could be implemented to prevent the less intelligent from reproducing in such large numbers then I would be all for it.
- brad walker
- Posts: 300
- Joined: Fri Sep 21, 2007 8:49 am
- Location: be an eye
Re: The Worst Case Scenario for the Global Financial Crisis:
I came across this website a few weeks ago and the author thinks that humanity repeats history on an interval of approximately a human lifetime. The generation that lived through and learned from the previous crises dies off and then the succeeding generations replay the conditions to create another. The other day the author posted What's coming next: Understanding the deflationary spiral.
What's coming next
...
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, here's what to expect for the near future:
- A massive "generational panic and crash," such as has already been described.
- A continuing fall in the stock market and other markets for several years, probably reaching as low as Dow 1500-2000.
- A deflationary spiral that will make many goods much cheaper -- since few people will be able to afford to buy them at any price.
- A substantial increase in bankruptcies, foreclosures, homelessness and starvation around the world, including the US.
- Increased restlessness among starving populations around the world, leading to a breakdown of civil order in many places, followed by the path to world war.
Re: The Worst Case Scenario for the Global Financial Crisis:
Holy shit. That article makes a pretty good case, and the generational argument is something that had already occurred to me. Thanks for the pointer, I'm going to read a lot more stuff there.brad walker wrote: What's coming next: Understanding the deflationary spiral.
Found this quote particularly interesting...
.. from a book written in 1931, about the 1920s.Second, a social and political doctrine, now widely accepted, beginning with the premise that people are entitled to certain betterments of life. If they cannot immediately afford them, that is, if out of their own resources these betterments cannot be provided, nevertheless people are entitled to them, and credit must provide them. And lest it should sound unreasonable, the conclusion is annexed that if the standard of living be raised by credit, as of course it may be for a while, then people will be better creditors, better customers, better to live with and able at last to pay their debts willingly.
If the Baltic Dry Index is really a good leading economic indicator, then things are still going to get a lot worse... Sure hope he's wrong about a coming world war... I think I'm starting to panic a little bit.
Re: The Worst Case Scenario for the Global Financial Crisis:
Yeah things will get worst, but the new Prez will slow down the slide for short time then strong lows scaring everyone, will take couple of years before stability comes back maybe 3.
But it will, and all the fuss and doomsday talk will be only bad memories.
(assuming no local bombing going on, or at least is to a minimum)
fingers crossed!
M
But it will, and all the fuss and doomsday talk will be only bad memories.
(assuming no local bombing going on, or at least is to a minimum)
fingers crossed!
M
- FOREIGNER
Re: The Worst Case Scenario for the Global Financial Crisis:
Maybe we should look at what caused the financial crisis in the first place.
- brad walker
- Posts: 300
- Joined: Fri Sep 21, 2007 8:49 am
- Location: be an eye
Re: The Worst Case Scenario for the Global Financial Crisis:
Yesterday the Boston Globe had an article speculating about what a depression would be like.
Depression 2009: What would it look like?
Depression 2009: What would it look like?
Re: The Worst Case Scenario for the Global Financial Crisis:
Yup, if it is written in the main - stream - media, why by golly ..it - gonna - happen. You betcha!brad walker wrote:Yesterday the Boston Globe had an article speculating about what a depression would be like.
Depression 2009: What would it look like?
PS - Ted Kennedy was a good swimmer in 1969, tho he couldn't (find time to) open the door for a lady he knocked up earlier in the year. Maybe he was repressed, too.
The Kennedy Legacy - what a beautiful choice!
.
Last edited by Tomas on Mon Nov 17, 2008 11:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Don't run to your death
Re: The Worst Case Scenario for the Global Financial Crisis:
Looking back to 1929 may be misleading. It may be more informative to look back to the Long Depression that started in 1873.
- brad walker
- Posts: 300
- Joined: Fri Sep 21, 2007 8:49 am
- Location: be an eye
Re: The Worst Case Scenario for the Global Financial Crisis:
NBER: U.S. Recession Started in December 2007
Bloomberg wrote: Dec. 1 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy entered a recession a year ago this month, the panel that dates American business expansions said today.
The declaration was made by the cycle-dating committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research, a private, nonprofit group of economists based in Cambridge, Massachusetts. The last time the U.S. was in a recession was from March through November 2001, according to NBER.
“The committee determined that the decline in economic activity in 2008 met the standard for a recession,” the group said in a statement on its Web site. The 1.2 million drop in payroll employment so far this year was the biggest factor in determining that start of the contraction, the group said.