Peak Oil and the limits to growth

[daybrown]

http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/3550
is one of the clearer presentations, not only of where we are headed, but where we are now. There's been a lot posted about the imminent collapse of the US economy. As may be. But there is another scenario seen in the decline of empire where the limit to growth is followed by a more general and gradual decline.

One way to do that, is to abandon the less profitable provinces to anarchy and barbarism, and redirect resource, like oil, to the great power centers. So: Chistian charity fed the poor in Africa, and now there are more of them, but now also the price of oil has risen and those who've contributed to charity, the American middle class, has seen its income decline.

So, the food that gets delivered is more expensive, and the means to deliver it is less reliable. And as the chaos caused by desperation spreads, this interferes with economic production, as we see most clearly in Kenya, which used to be an advancing economy. The decline in production reduces the money to buy fuel to keep the remaining parts of the local economy going, and so desperation increases and the anarchy spreads.

A point the above website misses, is that as the resource base peaks, the power elites, rather than cutting back to buy time to look for new resources or better methods, instead simply increases their exploitation of all lower classes so as to provide the illusion that progress continues. In Africa, when this happens, they are so poor already, that the local economies collapse as the corruption increases. You'd think the local politicians would figure this out, but in accordance with this machiavellian process, they only increase their rapaciousness so as to get as much out as quickly as possible, thinking they can take their loot and leave the collapse behind.

And of course, they take it to one of the more well developed great power centers, which results in a net redirection of resources away from these less profitable economies. So- where the model fails in the above Limit To Growth, is that the global population will peak well ahead of significant decline in global resource production. If all the global economy hasta do is provide for the 1-2 billion of the more civilized economies, then the rest of the global population can starve and suffer with pandemics.

Christian missionaries should have provided birth control to the mothers while they were there feeding the starving babies, but were not smart enuf to figure out the ultimate effect of what they were doing. I'm sure the massecres in the churches has not passed the notice of the locals who see that while Christian faith mite promise more in the next world, its not worth much in this one.

A more likely scenario that global collapse would be the abandonment of Christianity and a return to the pagan idea that your religion is for your people, and what others think is their problem. And if they starve because they cannot adapt, that is their problem as well. Darwinian law, not Mosaic, much less Christian dogma, rules.

The situation reminds me of what Shelby Foote Said of the civil war, that the North fought with one hand behind its back, and all it ever had to do was bring the other fist out. Today, the civilized economies have a lotta fat to shed that will enable them to continue. One problem with the above model is that it didnt forsee the Net effect, and how that keeps people at home in front of the PC rather than out driving around. Young men usta use lotsa gas crusing for girls, but now use the pc cruising for porn; which costs vastly less, and- delivers what it promises. Movie houses are closing, only the upscale resturants will serve, and more homeless shelters will open up.

Stud muffins wont be knocking up the mothers in homeless shelters to create more dependents, more women will be moved into group homes where they and their kids can get better case management, as well as reduce the birth rate. Welfare agencies simply cant *afford* to pay for the fuel to heat private homes and apartments for welfare moms.

Meanwhile, the professional elites from the less developed economies will move to the affluent world, and their kids will add to the talent base to deal with the efforts to stabilize those markets. We mite also see professional armies paid for by transnationals going into resource rich areas amid the barbarism and anarchy so as to, for example, maintain production of critical elements needed in computer chips. We will see more like Blackwater, but turn a blind eye to see less of what they do to maintain the modern global economy.

We see the success of the Israeli fence, and expect the same on the Mexican border. What with the rise in corn and food prices, Mexico could fall into anarchy, which will disrupt oil production, but then all of the off shore production of Mexico, Venuzeula, Nigeria, and soon Brazil, will fall into the hands of the US navy. Americans will be deliberately stupid so they can pretend they dont know.

[DHodges]

Good article!

But there is another scenario seen in the decline of empire where the limit to growth is followed by a more general and gradual decline.

This is something I've been thinking about lately - will the decline be fast (a catastrophic collapse) or relatively slow, drawn out over several decades? The two types of models he considers seem to come to different conclusions on that point.

Either way, a whole hell of a lot of people are going to die. Famines, wars, epidemics, etc. Big and quick, or a whole lot of smaller ones.

Americans will be deliberately stupid so they can pretend they dont know.

That much we can be sure about.

[brokenhead]

It makes you think of a bacteria colony senescing on an agar culture plate.

[tek0]

Either the people with all the power are planning on massive technological solutions to control populations and or keep most of humanity safe or they are planning one hell of an escape when it hits the fan ie..epidemics, cosmological threats, or whatever swirls down the tube.

Thats alot of variables to work with so I am siding with chaos and eventual environmental collapse with some optimsm concerning human technological prowess.

In the end it all boils down to the beliefs and humanity of the groups who control what we can keep in check excluding external factors we are nowhere near controlling.



Would be a drag to realize in the mid to final moments of a worldwide collapse that we are all so expendable as to not be figured into any ultimate survival plan.








No matter how advanced we become officially or behind the scense

[Ryan Rudolph]

I don't see such an dire collapse globally, but it could can really rough in pockets. Actually, as the of supply oil runs out, the demand for new types of energy systems will drastically increase. Moreover, even if the global warming premise is false, the action taken to divert the affects of global warming will actually divert the catastrophe caused by Peak Oil.

There are many combinations of non-fossil fuel energy systems that could work -

1. Wind, Solar, Nuclear, Fusion, Hydro-dams, and electric cars, hydrogen cars, ethanol powered cars.

The reason all these technologies are now marginalized is because oil is so plentiful, and relatively cheap to mass produce. But if it means survival of the species, we will manufacture whatever is necessary even if it isn't economically profitable to do so in the beginning.

[brokenhead]

The reason all these technologies are now marginalized is because oil is so plentiful, and relatively cheap to mass produce. But if it means survival of the species, we will manufacture whatever is necessary even if it isn't economically profitable to do so in the beginning.

If you've noticed, they have already begun mass producing alternatives, such as hybrids and electric cars. That if anything should tell you that the predictions above are not so far off base.

[Ryan Rudolph]

Brokenhead,

If you've noticed, they have already begun mass producing alternatives, such as hybrids and electric cars. That if anything should tell you that the predictions above are not so far off base.

The predictions are too doomsday with no understanding of how the free market works. The free market is solving the problem as we speak. Countries around the world are investing in alternative energy, and the more they do so around the world then this will reduce the shock to the economy as oil becomes increasingly scarce. And as oil becomes increasingly scarce, it will become increasingly expensive, and so the global market will step up to the new demand and provide alternatives for those who cannot afford to keep buying oil.

There will basically be a drastic surge in alternatives as oil prices sky rocket. The western countries will probably be okay, but the third world countries will probably get hit the hardest. So It isn’t a total doomsday scenario, but it will definitely mark the transition into a new economic paradigm.

[daybrown]

The problem with free markets is that they are not always rational. "irrational exhuberance" is often followed by market panic as traders discoer there are no more greater fools. Another problem the modern urbanites- who set policy- dont realize is that oil is used to produce food, and the price of commodities has already risen dramatically. Those regions which were marginally profitable are now being abandoned to anarchy, barbarism,and civil war.

There's a good case to be made we have passed Hubbard's peak. But because of human nature, the decline will not be as gradual as the rise in production. As production fails to keep up with demand, the price rises. With that greed rises, and the willingness to use force to try to control a supply. but the force damages the infrastructure, which lowers production, which rises prices and thereby increase greed. A market sentiment.

And while the development of alternative energy sources continues, I do not see that progressing at a rate fast enuf to prevent disaster. But maybe there are techniques that will work we do not yet know about, or new sources of supply that are also well hidden. Lets not forget that the USA is still a major producer, and that modern economies are run on 1/3 the average US consumption.

when homeowners are foreclosed, one of their options is to move back in with parents, which means that houses again will have children, adults, and grandparents all under the same roof. For a dramatically lower per capita carbon footprint. But also the restoration of an ancient social model that has some benefits. If just one in the family has a highly fuel efficient car, then that's what gets driven most of the time, and the SUV is only used when it is full of people.

Rationallly, it could be managed. Unfortunately neither the sheeple nor there leadership is rational enuf for us to be very hopeful.

[Tomas]

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A strange theft of oil and gas secrets

The equipment apparently contained the results of tests conducted for Petrobras close to the new gas field by Halliburton, an oil-services firm.
President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has said that the incident bears the signs of industrial espionage.
Things frequently go missing from containers that pass through Santos.
Brazil's biggest port is badly run, congested and corrupt.

http://www.economist.com/world/la/displ ... d=10731593

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[Tomas]

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Crude Oil = $61

-snip-

The coming inflationary rebound will make the $140 to $60 per barrel fluctuation look like a downward blip in a flat line.

-Click URL for complete article-

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/ ... il-61.html


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[DHodges]

You know, I used to think I had some sort of a handle on economics. But this stuff with oil dropping from $140 to $60 in the space of a few months, and the insane stuff going on in the stock market - I just have no idea what's going on.

What the hell is up with the DJIA going up 900 points in a day? Does anybody really know?

[Tomas]

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-DHodges-
You know, I used to think I had some sort of a handle on economics. But this stuff with oil dropping from $140 to $60 in the space of a few months, and the insane stuff going on in the stock market - I just have no idea what's going on.

-tomas-
The Fed is printing funny money ... it (the dollar) needs to be brought to an even par, more or less, with the Mexican peso. If you've noticed, the Canadian dollar is undergoing the same.. down to about .82c. Unification begins in 2010. The NAU, North American Union is about to be implemented. The big meeting is after the elections, (both Obama and McCain are NOT invited), note the article I placed in about Brother Nathanael (real jew news), on who is pulling McCain's, Obama's collar. Ditto: It's the Rothchild's poodle, Brezezinski, his sons are operatives in both McCain and Obama camps. These vultures cover for the unseen hands (see wizard of oz).

-DHodges-
What the hell is up with the DJIA going up 900 points in a day? Does anybody really know?

-tomas-
That's the hazards of your big-city lifestyle.

Check this out, the Australians are next:

Australian Dollar to US Dollar (/AUDUS)
http://moneycentral.msn.com/detail/stoc ... bol=/AUDUS


PS - Dave, the insurance companies are lining up for bailouts, you've been hearing that, huh? I first heard it in Sept.

Good luck, you'll need it.

Already, Russia is putting a stop to credit cards, and inter-bank transfers (of credit cards) being accepted. The EU banks loaned way too much money to the eastern bloc-nations the defaults are hitting Austria. Remember, Austria is where it all began back in 1931. Enter Hitler...

Pensions funds are next...


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[maestro]

You know, I used to think I had some sort of a handle on economics. But this stuff with oil dropping from $140 to $60 in the space of a few months, and the insane stuff going on in the stock market - I just have no idea what's going on.

The conventional wisdom is that oil is dropping as hedge funds indulge in a selloff frenzy and as global recession looms on oil demand.

I cannot say if something more sinister is underway or if this is plain old hysteria.

[DHodges]

Check this out, the Australians are next:

Australian Dollar to US Dollar (/AUDUS)
http://moneycentral.msn.com/detail/stoc ... bol=/AUDUS

Wow, I was not aware of that.

PS - Dave, the insurance companies are lining up for bailouts, you've been hearing that, huh? I first heard it in Sept.

Good luck, you'll need it.

I already work for an insurance company that's in liquidation. (It last wrote a policy in 2002.) I don't expect to work for a real live working insurance company again. I'm ahead of the game in experience with runoff.

I cannot say if something more sinister is underway or if this is plain old hysteria.

A few months back, there was a lot of argument in the media as to whether we were actually entering a recession or not. Now what you see in the media is, "Well, there was a financial meltdown, but it's certainly not a depression, heh heh."

Make of it what you will. I, for one, don't know what the hell to make of it. I'm trying to sort it out.

[Tomas]

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The World Tires of Dollar Hegemony

The rise in the dollar's exchange value is due to two factors:

-Click URL for complete article-

http://www.vdare.com/roberts/081029_dollar.htm


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[Tomas]

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Seized: The 2008 land grab for food and financial security

Short read:

http://www.grain.org/nfg/?id=610

.....................................................

There are four main parts to this land grab briefing:

http://www.grain.org/briefings/?id=212


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[Iolaus]

It's the Rothchild's poodle, Brezezinski

I thought he was with Rockefeller.

[Tomas]

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Investors shun Greek debt as shipping crisis deepens

-snip-

The Baltic Dry Index measuring rates for coal, iron ore, and grains, and other dry goods plummented below 1000 yesterday, down 92% since peaking in June.

The daily rental rates for Capesize big ships have dropped $234,000 to $7,340 in weeks, leaving operators stuck with heavy losses on long leases. Empty ships are now crowding Singapore and other global ports.

-Click URL for complete article-

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/global/main. ... x/ship.xml


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[DHodges]

If the Baltic Dry Index is really a leading indicator, then we are still a long way from the bottom.

[Tomas]

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Shipping rates hit zero as trade sinks

-snip-

He said it was "illogical" for shippers to offer zero rates, but they do whatever they can to survive in a highly cyclical market.

Offering slots for free is akin to an airline giving away spare seats for nothing in the hope of making something from meals and fees. (see photo)

-Click URL for complete article-

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/4229 ... sinks.html

[DHodges]

At this point I think we can say that we are seeing, at the minimum, the most severe recession seen since the 1930's. I don't see how there can be a recovery in 2009, but I expect Obama to do a bunch of stuff that will be in the 'unprecedented' category, so it's impossible to have any certainty on the effects.

foreclosures up 81%

fear on Wall Street:

We've been saying around here we were going to get a dose of reality in the first quarter," Larkin said, noting that stocks posted a modest year-end rally even as economic data pointed to a deepening slump. "Now we're seeing that things are even worse than anticipated."

[Tomas]

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America's Last Dominant Industry Starts to Leave

America has begun the initial steps to final outsourcing of it's last dominant industry. As before, a recession is the key to making the move. Even as we speak, the oil/gas services industries, always a US dominated industry, has begun mass layoffs. From Schlumberger to Baker to Halliburton and dozens of smaller firms, tens of thousands of jobs are either already gone on being shoved into the guillotine.

http://mat-rodina.blogspot.com/2009/02/ ... tarts.html

[Carl G]

Nobody cares.

[DHodges]

"Shoved into the guillotine" is such horrible writing I couldn't read the rest.